SC FreiburgDraw 18%Aston Villa
🏆
Prediction
SC Freiburg @ 5.3
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 2
63% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.93
55% probability
SC Freiburg's strong home form and their recent 4-1 victory against RB Leipzig give them an edge. Aston Villa's away struggles, with an average of 1.38 goals conceded per
game, make Freiburg a valuable pick at
odds of 5.3.
💡 SC Freiburg's impressive home goal-scoring record, averaging 2.5 goals per
game, could overwhelm Aston Villa's defense, which has shown vulnerabilities on the road.
Final Result
SC Freiburg 0 : 3 Aston Villa
Our prediction: 1 ✗
The atmosphere is electric as SC Freiburg hosts Aston Villa in a crucial UEFA Europa League clash. Freiburg rides high after a dominant performance against RB Leipzig, while Villa arrives with a formidable league position but recent away vulnerabilities. Both teams eye progression, with Freiburg's home advantage and Villa's attacking prowess setting the stage for an intriguing battle.
📊 Team Statistics
Avg Scored1.75
Avg Conceded1.6
Over 2.575%
BTTS65%
Clean Sheets2
Avg Scored1.7
Avg Conceded1.4
Over 2.555%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets6
⭐ SC Freiburg — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Ginter | Defender | 2 | 2 | 7.40 | 14 | 6 |
| N. Atubolu | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.30 | 14 | 0 |
| J. Manzambi | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 7.21 | 14 | 9 |
| M. Eggestein | Midfielder | 2 | 0 | 7.16 | 13 | 7 |
| L. Kübler | Defender | 2 | 0 | 7.15 | 7 | 1 |
⭐ Aston Villa — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Bizot | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 8.48 | 4 | 0 |
| J. McGinn | Midfielder | 5 | 1 | 7.31 | 11 | 6 |
| E. Konsa | Defender | 2 | 0 | 7.21 | 11 | 2 |
| T. Mings | Defender | 1 | 0 | 7.17 | 4 | 1 |
| M. Rogers | Midfielder | 2 | 4 | 7.04 | 14 | 27 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X2.15
Double Chance X21.14
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.33
Under 1.5 Goals3.2
Historical Data
No direct head-to-head data exists for these teams, adding an element of unpredictability. Freiburg's home encounters generally see high-scoring affairs, with 75% surpassing 2.5 goals. Villa’s away games show a balanced BTTS rate of 55%. Both teams have strong offensive setups that suggest goals are likely if they meet head-on.
Model Output & Recommendation
The model favors SC Freiburg with a 74% chance of victory, drawing confidence from their home form and Aston Villa's away inconsistencies. The odds of 5.3 for a Freiburg win suggest value, as the model probability exceeds the implied odds. With a total expected goals of 3.11, the projection leans towards a high-scoring match, and the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Freiburg.
Statistical Deep Dive
SC Freiburg's recent form at home is impressive, boasting an average of 2.5 goals scored per match while conceding 1.3. They have registered clean sheets in 40% of their home fixtures. Aston Villa, on the other hand, averages 1 goal per away game, conceding 1.38. The xG model predicts Freiburg at 2.4 and Villa at 0.71, indicating Freiburg’s offensive edge. Freiburg's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, evident in 75% of their last 20 games. The Poisson model gives Freiburg a 74% chance of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the
odds for SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
SC Freiburg is priced at 5.3, the draw at 3.6, and Aston Villa at 1.65. Freiburg offers value as the model probability of 74% exceeds the implied probability of 18.87%.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
With an xG total of 3.11 and 75% of Freiburg's
games going over 2.5, it's likely. The
odds for Over 2.5 are 2.00. Yes, it’s expected to be a high-scoring match.
3
What is the best
bet for SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
The best value
bet is SC Freiburg to
win at
odds of 5.3. The model's 74%
win probability for Freiburg provides a significant edge over the implied probability.
4
Which players are key to watch in SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
For SC Freiburg, M. Ginter is crucial, with 2 goals and 2 assists, rated 7.40. His defensive leadership is key. For Aston Villa, J. McGinn stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist, rated 7.31, pivotal in midfield control.
5
What is the Draw No
Bet option for SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
Draw No
Bet removes the risk of a draw, returning the stake if the match ends level.
Odds for SC Freiburg are 3.2 and for Aston Villa 1.22. Freiburg offers better value than a straight
win.
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UEFA Europa League20.05.2026
