SC FreiburgDraw 28%SC Braga
🏆
Prediction
SC Freiburg @ 1.84
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 2
69% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.85
65% probability
Over 2.5 @ 2
Both teams have a high percentage of matches with over 2.5 goals, Freiburg at 60% and Braga at 65%. The model predicts an expected goals total of 2.77, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.
💡 SC Freiburg's defensive inconsistency at home, conceding 1.22 goals on average, could be exploited by SC Braga's strong away scoring form.
Final Result
SC Freiburg 3 : 1 SC Braga
Our prediction: 1 โ
SC Freiburg will host SC Braga in a UEFA Europa League encounter on 07.05.2026. Both teams are evenly matched, sitting in similar positions in their respective leagues. Freiburg, ranked 7th, shares the same points and goal difference with Braga, ranked 6th. This clash is crucial for both teams as they vie for progression in the tournament. The previous meeting saw Braga secure a narrow victory, setting the stage for a competitive rematch.
📊 Team Statistics
Avg Scored1.35
Avg Conceded1.4
Over 2.560%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets4
Avg Scored1.95
Avg Conceded1
Over 2.565%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets8
โญ SC Freiburg โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Ginter | Defender | 2 | 2 | 7.38 | 13 | 4 |
| N. Atubolu | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.35 | 13 | 0 |
| M. Eggestein | Midfielder | 2 | 0 | 7.21 | 12 | 7 |
| J. Manzambi | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 7.18 | 13 | 9 |
| V. Grifo | Midfielder | 5 | 3 | 7.16 | 13 | 14 |
โญ SC Braga โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Gabri Martรญnez | Attacker | 3 | 0 | 7.24 | 11 | 5 |
| Ricardo Horta | Attacker | 4 | 4 | 7.18 | 16 | 23 |
| L. Hornรญฤek | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.05 | 16 | 0 |
| R. Zalazar | Attacker | 2 | 1 | 7.01 | 12 | 11 |
| F. Grillitsch | Midfielder | 2 | 1 | 7.01 | 10 | 4 |
๐ Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.22
Double Chance X21.91
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.33
Under 1.5 Goals3.2
Current Form Guide
SC Freiburg's recent form shows inconsistency, with a declining trend of 0.8 points per game. They have a mixed record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses across their last 20 matches. SC Braga displays a more stable form with 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, although their recent performances indicate a slight decline. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities, but Braga's ability to secure points away from home gives them a slight edge.
Best Bet Recommendation
The most valuable market is the Over 2.5 goals, priced at 2.00, which aligns with the model's prediction of a 69% probability. Freiburg's home games average over 2 goals, and Braga's away form supports a high-scoring encounter. The Double Chance market on SC Braga offers a safer risk-adjusted option, priced at 1.91, given their strong away record. However, the goal market presents the best value based on statistical evidence.
Goals & Market Analysis
SC Freiburg has an average of 1.35 goals per game, with a weighted average of 1.41. Their home games show a higher scoring tendency with 2.11 goals per game, but they also concede 1.22 on average. SC Braga scores 1.95 per game with a weighted average of 1.76, and they maintain a stable scoring rate of 1.56 in away matches. The expected goals model suggests a total of 2.77 goals, with a 69% probability for over 2.5 goals. Both teams have a tendency to score early, with Freiburg netting 19 first-half goals. The BTTS market is priced at odds of 1.85, reflecting a 65% probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the
odds for SC Freiburg vs SC Braga?
The
odds are SC Freiburg: 1.84, Draw: 3.5, SC Braga: 4.1. Implied probabilities are approximately 54%, 29%, and 24% respectively. SC Freiburg represents value with a model probability of 46% compared to the implied 54%.
2
Will both teams
score in SC Freiburg vs SC Braga?
The BTTS percentage is 65% overall, with both teams scoring in 55% of Braga's and 50% of Freiburg's matches. The BTTS Yes is priced at 1.85. SC Freiburg has a higher likelihood to concede, as they have failed to
score in 7 of their last 20 matches.
3
What is the best
bet for SC Freiburg vs SC Braga?
The best value
bet is Over 2.5 goals at
odds of 2.00. The model probability is 69%, providing a value edge over the implied probability of 50% from the
odds.
4
Which players are key to watch in SC Freiburg vs SC Braga?
For SC Freiburg, M. Ginter is a key player, with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.38 rating, contributing to both defense and attack. SC Braga's Ricardo Horta, with 4 goals, 4 assists, and a 7.18 rating, is pivotal in their offensive plays.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in SC Freiburg vs SC Braga?
The Over 1.5 goals probability is 76% according to the model. The Over 1.5
odds are 1.33. Both teams have seen over 1.5 goals in the majority of their last 20 matches, making this a relatively safe
bet.
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/* โโ v15: Info row (venue + coaches) โโ */
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UEFA Europa League07.05.2026
