Aston VillaDraw 22%Liverpool
🏆
Prediction
Aston Villa @ 2.96
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.5
58% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.44
56% probability
Aston Villa has an expected goals (xG) of 2.34 compared to Liverpool's 0.88. The model predicts a 55% probability of an Aston Villa
win, which provides value against the implied probability of 33.78% from the
odds of 2.96.
💡 Aston Villa's home performance is pivotal; they have scored an average of 2 goals per
game at home recently, with a strong defensive record of only 1.36 conceded on average.
Final Result
Aston Villa 4 : 2 Liverpool
Our prediction: 1 ✓
Aston Villa hosts Liverpool at Villa Park in Birmingham on 15th May 2026. With both teams vying for Champions League qualification, this Premier League clash is crucial. Aston Villa and Liverpool are tied on points, but Liverpool has a superior goal difference. Each team seeks to secure a top-four finish with only two matches remaining in the season.
📊 Team Statistics
Avg Scored1.55
Avg Conceded1.35
Over 2.550%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets6
Avg Scored1.75
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.560%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets5
🏟️Venue
Villa Park, Birmingham
42,824 capacity · Grass
⭐ Aston Villa — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Y. Tielemans | Midfielder | 0 | 4 | 7.19 | 23 | 29 |
| B. Kamara | Midfielder | 1 | 3 | 7.11 | 18 | 15 |
| A. Onana | Midfielder | 2 | 0 | 7.05 | 24 | 7 |
| E. Konsa | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.00 | 33 | 5 |
| Pau Torres | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.93 | 19 | 1 |
⭐ Liverpool — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| V. van Dijk | Defender | 4 | 0 | 7.24 | 36 | 11 |
| D. Szoboszlai | Midfielder | 6 | 5 | 7.21 | 34 | 68 |
| I. Konaté | Defender | 1 | 0 | 7.10 | 34 | 7 |
| R. Ngumoha | Attacker | 2 | 1 | 7.01 | 17 | 13 |
| C. Gakpo | Midfielder | 7 | 5 | 6.93 | 34 | 50 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.65
Double Chance X21.38
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.17
Under 1.5 Goals5
Current Form Guide
Aston Villa's recent form is declining, with only 1 win in the last 5 matches. Their record in the last 20 games is evenly split with 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses. Liverpool, however, displays stability with 3 wins in the last 5 matches, reflecting a stable trend. Their 10 wins out of 20 matches, paired with a superior goal difference, highlight their slightly better form. Despite a dip in away performance, Liverpool's recent victories suggest resilience.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market is the Aston Villa win at odds of 2.96, offering a higher probability than implied by the odds. Villa's xG of 2.34 is compelling, and their recent home form reinforces this bet. While a Double Chance on Aston Villa or Draw (1X) at odds of 1.65 provides a safer alternative, the potential return on a straight win bet aligns with model predictions. Liverpool's lower xG and recent away struggles support this recommendation.
Goals & Market Analysis
Aston Villa's expected goals (xG) is 2.34, indicating a strong likelihood of scoring multiple goals. Liverpool's xG is significantly lower at 0.88, suggesting potential struggles in front of goal. The probability for Over 2.5 goals in this match stands at 58%, priced at 1.50. Historical data shows a 60% rate for Over 2.5 in their last ten meetings. Aston Villa has an inclination to score in the first half with 28 goals, while Liverpool has scored 35 goals in the first half this season. The BTTS probability is 56%, with odds of 1.44 for 'Yes'.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the
odds for Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
Aston Villa: 2.96, Draw: 3.7, Liverpool: 2.16. Aston Villa's implied probability is 33.78%, offering value against the model's 55% probability.
2
Will both teams
score in Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
The BTTS rate for both teams is 55%, with a H2H BTTS rate of 60%.
Odds for BTTS Yes are 1.44. Liverpool, with 5 clean sheets, is more likely to keep a clean sheet.
3
What is the best
bet for Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
Aston Villa
Win at
odds of 2.96 is the best value
bet. The model's 55% probability exceeds the implied
odds probability of 33.78%.
4
Which players are key to watch in Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
Aston Villa's Y. Tielemans has 4 assists and a rating of 7.19, contributing significantly to their midfield creativity. Liverpool's V. van Dijk, with 4 goals and a rating of 7.24, is crucial in defense and set-pieces.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
The Over 1.5 goals probability is 83%, with
odds of 1.17. Aston Villa's last 20 matches had 2+ goals 50% of the time, while Liverpool's rate is 60%.
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Premier League15.05.2026
