SC Paderborn 07Draw 17%VfL Wolfsburg
🏆
Prediction
SC Paderborn 07
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES
67% probability
SC Paderborn 07 has a calculated
win probability of 68%, significantly higher than the implied probability of 68% for the
odds of 1.47. Their recent home performance with an average of 2.5 goals scored supports this outcome.
💡 VfL Wolfsburg's away defensive record is poor, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per
game, which could be exploited by SC Paderborn 07's strong home scoring rate.
Final Result
SC Paderborn 07 2 : 1 VfL Wolfsburg
Our prediction: 1 ✓
SC Paderborn 07 will host VfL Wolfsburg at the Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn. As the Bundesliga season approaches its end, SC Paderborn 07 aims to capitalize on their home advantage, while VfL Wolfsburg seeks crucial points to avoid relegation playoffs. Both teams have contrasting momentum, with SC Paderborn 07's home form being a key factor.
📊 Team Statistics
Avg Scored1.8
Avg Conceded1.55
Over 2.565%
BTTS75%
Clean Sheets4
Avg Scored1.1
Avg Conceded2.05
Over 2.560%
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets2
🏟️Venue
Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
15,306 capacity · Grass
⭐ VfL Wolfsburg — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| J. Kamiński | Midfielder | 2 | 0 | 7.30 | 4 | 9 |
| K. Grabara | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.21 | 34 | 3 |
| M. Arnold | Midfielder | 1 | 4 | 7.09 | 25 | 29 |
| P. Wimmer | Midfielder | 4 | 3 | 6.92 | 25 | 16 |
| Vinicius Souza | Midfielder | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 24 | 8 |
Current Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07's recent form shows a downward trend with a record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses in their last 20 matches. Their recent performances at home, however, remain strong with an average of 2.5 goals scored per game. Conversely, VfL Wolfsburg has shown slight improvement, with a recent record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, indicating a struggling defensive unit. Their form trend is marked as improving, yet their away form remains a concern.
Best Bet Recommendation
The optimal market for this match is SC Paderborn 07 to win, with odds priced at 1.47. The model suggests a 68% probability for this outcome, presenting a value edge compared to the implied odds. SC Paderborn 07's offensive strength, particularly at home, along with VfL Wolfsburg's defensive vulnerabilities, supports this prediction. Double Chance or Draw No Bet options may offer reduced risk, but the primary value lies in a straight win for the home side.
Goals & Market Analysis
The expected goals model forecasts a high-scoring encounter with a combined xG of 5.74, heavily favoring SC Paderborn 07. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 67%, while Over 1.5 goals stands at 98%. Both teams to score (BTTS) is likely at 76%. SC Paderborn 07 averages 2.5 goals at home, indicating strength in the offensive phase, especially in the second half. VfL Wolfsburg's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per match, which may lead to a high-scoring game.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the
odds for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The
odds for SC Paderborn 07 to
win are 1.47, equating to an implied probability of 68%. A draw is priced at 5.88 with an implied probability of 17%, and VfL Wolfsburg to
win is at 6.67, corresponding to an implied probability of 15%. The value lies in backing SC Paderborn 07, as their
win probability is higher than the implied
odds.
2
Will both teams
score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The BTTS likelihood is 76%. SC Paderborn 07 has a 75% BTTS rate in their last 20 matches, while VfL Wolfsburg has a 70% rate. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.32, indicating a high probability. VfL Wolfsburg is more likely to not
score, given their poor away goal-scoring record.
3
What is the best
bet for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The best value
bet is SC Paderborn 07 to
win, priced at 1.47. The model's probability of 68% exceeds the implied
odds, suggesting a favorable value edge. SC Paderborn 07's home scoring ability and VfL Wolfsburg's defensive struggles underpin this recommendation.
4
Which players are key to watch in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg's key player is J. Kamiński, a midfielder with 2 goals and a 7.30 rating across 4 appearances. His playmaking ability with 9 key passes could influence the midfield battle. SC Paderborn 07's key players data is unavailable, but their collective home performance is critical.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The probability for Over 1.5 goals is 98%, making it a highly likely outcome. Both teams have seen over 1.5 goals in the vast majority of their recent matches, supporting this market's safety. Exact
odds are not available.
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Bundesliga25.05.2026
