St. TruidenDraw 32%Union St. Gilloise
🏆
Prediction
Union St. Gilloise @ 2
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.91
44% probability
Double Chance X2 @ 1.25
Union St. Gilloise has a superior form,
winning 14 of their last 20 matches, and have a higher xG of 1.09 compared to St. Truiden’s 0.81. The 1X2 model gives Union St. Gilloise a 46% chance of
winning, which supports the value in the Double Chance X2 market.
💡 Union St. Gilloise has shown defensive solidity, conceding only 0.5 goals per
game over the last 20 matches, indicating strong resistance against St. Truiden’s average scoring rate.
Final Result
St. Truiden 2 : 1 Union St. Gilloise
Our prediction: 2 ✗
The upcoming Jupiler Pro League match between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise is set for 02.05.2026. St. Truiden, currently ranked third, aims to secure UEFA Europa League qualification, while league leaders Union St. Gilloise are on course for a Champions League placement. Both teams have contrasting recent forms, with St. Truiden experiencing a decline and Union St. Gilloise showing consistent improvement. This fixture is pivotal for both teams' ambitions, with Union St. Gilloise having a historical advantage in head-to-head encounters.
📊 Team Statistics
Avg Scored1.7
Avg Conceded1.2
Over 2.560%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets5
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded0.5
Over 2.535%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets11
⭐ St. Truiden — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| A. Bertaccini | Attacker | 1 | 1 | 8.90 | 1 | 2 |
| R. Ito | Midfielder | 9 | 5 | 7.30 | 32 | 96 |
| L. Kokubo | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.25 | 35 | 0 |
| V. Musliu | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.13 | 25 | 4 |
| J. Pupe | Defender | 1 | 0 | 7.10 | 4 | 3 |
⭐ Union St. Gilloise — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| C. Burgess | Defender | 2 | 3 | 7.39 | 31 | 12 |
| C. Vanhoutte | Midfielder | 0 | 1 | 7.38 | 5 | 12 |
| K. Mac Allister | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.32 | 30 | 11 |
| A. Khalaili | Attacker | 2 | 4 | 7.19 | 33 | 53 |
| A. Zorgane | Midfielder | 4 | 4 | 7.08 | 33 | 35 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.77
Double Chance X21.25
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.3
Under 1.5 Goals3.4
Current Form Guide
St. Truiden's recent form indicates a decline, with a record of WWDLL in their last five matches. They have conceded more goals than scored in recent fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals per game over the last 20 matches but struggling defensively with 1.2 goals conceded. In contrast, Union St. Gilloise is on an upward trajectory, with WDWWW in their last five games. They have shown consistency by allowing only 10 goals in their last 20 matches, and their form is characterized by a low standard deviation in goals, pointing to consistent performances.
Best Bet Recommendation
The Double Chance X2 at odds of 1.25 is the recommended bet. Union St. Gilloise is favored with a 46% win probability in the 1X2 market, supported by their superior defensive record and recent form. St. Truiden's declining trend and lower xG of 0.81 suggest they may struggle to break down Union's defense. The Double Chance market offers a risk-adjusted approach, providing coverage for a draw or a win for Union St. Gilloise, aligning with the statistical model and historical head-to-head data.
Goals & Market Analysis
The expected goal model predicts a total of 1.9 goals, with St. Truiden having an xG of 0.81 and Union St. Gilloise at 1.09. The probability for over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, while over 1.5 goals is more likely at 57%. St. Truiden's matches have seen over 2.5 goals 60% of the time in their last 20 games, compared to Union St. Gilloise's 35%. The BTTS (Both Teams to Score) probability is 46%, reflecting the defensive strengths of Union St. Gilloise, who have kept 11 clean sheets in the same period. Union's away form shows an average of 0.56 goals conceded per game, underscoring their defensive capabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the
odds for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
The
odds are St. Truiden: 3.65, Draw: 3.35, Union St. Gilloise: 2. The implied probability for Union St. Gilloise is 50%, which aligns closely with the model's 46% probability, indicating value in their favor.
2
Will both teams
score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
The BTTS probability is 46%, with
odds of BTTS Yes at 1.7 and No at 2. Union St. Gilloise is more likely to keep a clean sheet, having done so in 11 of their last 20 matches.
3
What is the best
bet for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
The best value
bet is Double Chance X2 at
odds of 1.25. This offers a favorable edge as Union St. Gilloise has a 46%
win probability, and the model suggests a 45% chance of a draw or away
win.
4
Which players are key to watch in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
For St. Truiden, R. Ito is key with 9 goals, 5 assists, and a rating of 7.30. His playmaking ability is crucial. For Union St. Gilloise, C. Burgess stands out with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a 7.39 rating, providing defensive stability and aerial threat.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
The Over 1.5 goals probability is 57%, with
odds of 1.3. St. Truiden's matches have seen 2+ goals in 60% of their last 20
games, supporting this market's potential.
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Jupiler Pro League02.05.2026
