This weekend, Samsunspor hosts Konyaspor in a match that could have significant implications for the relegation battle in the Süper Lig. While consensus might favour a home victory given Samsunspor’s 45% predicted win probability, their last five matches have all ended in defeat. This dire streak leaves them languishing in 17th place with just four
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor Prediction and Analysis | Süper Lig | 07/11/2026
01.11.2026
07:03
Samsunspor
45%
VS
Konyaspor
25%
Prediction
Samsunspor @ 2.43
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.85
58% probability
42%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 107/253
★ BEST BET
Samsunspor Win @ 2.43
With Samsunspor having a 45% probability of winning according to the model, there is a value edge against the implied odds. Samsunspor's home scoring average of 1.56 goals per game, coupled with Konyaspor's poor away record of 5 losses in 8 matches, supports the home victory. Additionally, Samsunspor's recent rest period gives them an advantage in terms of preparation and recovery.
💡 Despite Samsunspor's poor recent form, their home scoring average of 1.56 goals per game stands out as a potential turning point against Konyaspor, whose away defence concedes 1.38 goals on average.
This weekend, Samsunspor hosts Konyaspor in a match that could have significant implications for the relegation battle in the Süper Lig. While consensus might favour a home victory given Samsunspor's 45% predicted win probability, their last five matches have all ended in defeat. This dire streak leaves them languishing in 17th place with just four points. In contrast, Konyaspor sits slightly better in 15th with eight points, having managed a draw in their last match. The stakes could not be higher, with both teams desperate to avoid the drop. It's worth noting that Samsunspor's home form is slightly more respectable; they average 1.56 goals scored at home, suggesting they could pose a genuine threat in this fixture.
Team Statistics
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.43
Double Chance X21.51
Double Chance 121.28
Over 1.5 Goals1.23
Under 1.5 Goals3.42
The Form Book
Samsunspor's recent form is concerning, having lost their last five matches, including a 1-2 defeat to Amed and a heavy 1-5 loss against Çorum FK. These results reflect their declining goal-scoring prowess and defensive frailties. Konyaspor, in comparison, have shown a mixed bag of results. They secured a 2-0 win against Gençlerbirliği S.K., but also suffered a 0-4 defeat to Galatasaray, a match where they were outclassed. Their pattern of alternating results suggests inconsistency, but also the capacity to surprise. With Samsunspor struggling to find any positive momentum, Konyaspor enters this fixture in slightly better form, providing them a psychological edge.
Our Prediction
Our prediction leans towards a Samsunspor victory, backed by a model probability of 45% and a value edge against their odds of 2.43. Samsunspor's potential to exploit Konyaspor's travel woes is significant, despite their recent struggles. Konyaspor's inconsistency, especially away from home where they have conceded an average of 1.38 goals, plays into this outlook. The risk lies in Samsunspor's current losing streak, but their home form offers a glimmer of hope. The match promises to be a tight affair, where the home side might just edge it with renewed energy.
The Market Analysis
The market sees Samsunspor as marginal favourites at odds of 2.43, reflecting their home advantage despite poor form. The over 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.85 suggests expectations of a reasonably high-scoring encounter, supported by Samsunspor's high-scoring home average. The BTTS market, at 52%, shows a balanced view on whether both teams will score, priced at 1.66. Given the defensive vulnerabilities both sides have shown, particularly Samsunspor's 1.89 average conceded goals at home, the market seems to expect goals. However, the low scoring nature of Konyaspor's recent matches suggests a cautious approach to the over 2.5 goals market.
The Story So Far
Samsunspor's season so far has been a tale of spiralling form and mounting pressure. Anchored in 17th place, they are desperately in need of a victory to reignite their campaign. A string of losses has left fans questioning the team’s resilience and hoping for a turnaround. On the other hand, Konyaspor, while not much better off, have shown glimpses of resilience with a recent win against Gençlerbirliği S.K., which offers a glimmer of hope. The managerial pressure is palpable in both camps, with each game feeling like a must-win. It’s a battle not just for points but for restoring confidence and fan faith. Could this match against Konyaspor be the turning point Samsunspor needs, or will Konyaspor seize the opportunity to climb further away from danger?
What Could Go Wrong
The main risk to predicting a Samsunspor win comes from their abysmal recent form, with five consecutive losses and a hefty goal difference of -13. While their attacking numbers at home are decent, their defence has been leaky, conceding an average of 1.89 goals. Konyaspor's ability to secure draws in away games, such as the 0-0 at Kasımpaşa, illustrates their potential to grind out results. Their relatively stable form, with fewer goals conceded on average, suggests they are capable of frustrating Samsunspor. The danger lies in Samsunspor failing to break through Konyaspor's defence, making a draw a plausible outcome. Given these factors, bettors should consider hedging with a Double Chance or Draw No Bet at the available odds for a more conservative stance.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
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What is Samsunspor's recent form?
Samsunspor's recent form is poor, with five straight losses, including a 1-2 defeat against Amed. At home, they scored an average of 1.56 goals but have no clean sheets, indicating defensive issues.
3
Which players are key to watch in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Samsunspor's attack averages 1.25 goals per game, showing their offensive intent. Konyaspor's xG of 1.15 indicates they create fewer chances. The focus will be on how Samsunspor can break down Konyaspor's defence.
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What is at stake in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Both teams are battling relegation, with Samsunspor in 17th on 4 points and Konyaspor 15th on 8 points. This match could be pivotal in climbing out of the danger zone.
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Are there injury concerns for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
No significant injuries are reported for either team, meaning both sides are expected to field their strongest line-ups. This should ensure a competitive match.
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